Sub Saharan Slave Trade and Europeans Effect free essay sample

There are two sides to people who blame Europeans for introducing regimes of labor exploitation and markets for enslaved persons from the fifteenth century to the nineteenth century, which devastated African societies and those who argue Europeans that had extended older social, economic and political arrangements that already existed in most of Africa. From the class discussions and reading my opinion of the issue is Europeans just commercialese and exploited the slave trading business, so Europeans should not be at fault for starting the slave trade.Slavery has been practiced or almost the all of recorded history; the African slave trade has left a legacy which cannot be ignored. Slavery existed within sub-Sahara African societies before the arrival Of Europeans. The internal trade was conducted within the African continent itself. It involved trade between North Africa and West Africa. Africans were exposed to several forms of slavery over the centuries, including slavery under both the Muslims with the sub-Sahara slave trade slave trade, and Europeans through the trans-Atlantic slave trade. We will write a custom essay sample on Sub Saharan Slave Trade and Europeans Effect or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page For my research topic I will explore the sub-Sahara slave trade though westernAfrican kingdoms of the Ghana Empire, the Mali Empire, and Shanghai Empire and how the Europeans effected and expanded slavery in western Africa to the newly founded America. This topic means a great deal to me because in the past I was unaware of the details of the sub-Sahara slave trade and what exactly went on in these early African Kingdoms before the Europeans arrived. Trans-Sahara trade, between Mediterranean countries and West Africa, was an important trade route from the eighth century until the late sixteenth century. The powerful kingdoms in West Africa great wealth is based on trade ether than conquest.Much warfare goes on between them; this permits the ruler of the most powerful state to demand the submission of the others. The main business was the controlling of the caravans, merchants and camels . These routes run north and south through the Sahara. And the most precious of the commodities moving north is African gold. Camels were the key to the Trans Sahara trade, because camels were adapted to the dessert climate and needed less water and rest. The trade was conducted by caravans of Arabian camels. These camels would be fattened for a number of months before Ewing assembled into a caravan.According to Bin Batista, the explorer who accompanied one of the caravans, the average size was a thousand camels per caravan, with some being as large as 1 2,000 . The caravans would be guided by highly paid Barber guides who knew the desert and could ensure safe passage from their fellow desert nomads. Due to the Trans-Sahara trade Timeout was founded and established, Islamic religion prospered, internal trade arose all through western Africa. This trade route opened a new gateway for southern Africa and northern Africa and the Middle East to began o trade good and slaves which exposed a new trade partner to acquire more wealth.There were various forms of slavery that existed in Africa such as Chattel Slavery which is the servitude relationship where the slave is treated as the property of the owner . As such, the owner is free to sell, trade, or treat the slave as they would other pieces of property, Domestic service while slaves would work primarily in the house of the master but retain some freedoms. Pawnshop is the use of people as collateral to secure the repayment of debt. Military slavery was the acquisition and training of conscripted military units which would retain the identity of military slaves even after their service .Some countries in the African continent had thei r own systems of slavery. People were enslaved as punishment for a crime, payment for a debt or as a prisoner of war. However, African slavery was different from what was to come later. Most enslaved people were captured in battle. In some kingdoms, temporary slavery was a punishment for some crimes. In some cases, enslaved people could work to buy their freedom. Children Of enslaved people did not automatically become slaves but had a chance to be free. Women made up the majors ¶y of early African slaves. In addition to agricultural work, female slaves carried out other economic functions, such as trading and cotton spinning and dyeing. They also performed domestic chores, such as preparing food, washing clothes, and cleaning . Powerful African men kept female slaves as wives or concubines, and in many societies these women stood as symbols of male wealth. Male slaves typically farmed and herded animals . Those who belonged to wealthy families and especially of ruling lineages of states also worked as porters and rowers, and learned crafts such as weaving, construction, and metalwork.New slaves were moieties given menial tasks while experienced slaves did the more difficult and dangerous work, such as mining and quarrying. The main industries in pre-colonial Africa were gold mining iron working, salt making, cloth weaving and other art and craft industries. . The Akin people of Ghana for example employed hundreds of slaves in the gold mining industry. The Etsi and the Borrow Faint of Ghana used slaves in the salt making industry In West Africa, historians know about slavery from about 900 AD . But the lives of African slaves in West Africa slaves were extremely different.In many West African societies, land was owned by communities, not by individuals. Social status and class could not be based on land ownership. Instead, they were based on ones place in the social environment. In Africa, many societies recognized slaves as property, but others saw them as dependents that eventually might be integrated into the families of slave owners. Slaves were part of the family as well as private property. Slavery was not a lifetime status, someone might be born free, made a slave for a few years, and then be free again for the rest of their life.Slaves also had rights; they could marry, own repertory, and inherit significant goods from their owner. Slaves could even own slaves themselves. Some West African Societies allowed slaves to attain positions of military or administrative power. Slaves who farmed for their owners were also given plots of land on which to farm and enjoy its proceeds. Slaves could inherit property as well as hold property of their own. Slavery was practiced in diverse ways in the different communities of West Africa prior to European trade.With the development of the trans-Sahara slave trade and the economies of gold in the Western Sale, a number of the major dates became organized around the slave trade, including the Ghana Empire, the Mali Empire, and Shanghai Empire. However, other communities in West Africa largely resisted the slave trade. For example the Moss Kingdoms tried to take over key sites in the sub-Sahara trade and, when these efforts failed, the Moss became defenders against slave raiding by the powerful states of the Western Sale. The Moss were a warlike nation With formidable cavalry, who had successfully resisted all past invaders.The Moss would eventually enter the slave trade in the 1 sass with the Atlantic slave trade being the main arrest. Walter Rodney identified no slavery or significant domestic servitude in early European accounts on the Upper Guiana region and I. A. Kangarooing contends that European accounts reveal that the slave trade was not a major activity along the coast controlled by the Your people and Ajax people before Europeans arrived. With the beginning of the Atlantic slave trade, demand for slavery in West Africa increased and a number of states became centered on the slave trade and domestic slavery increased dramatically.The Shanghai Empire was located more to the east, including areas of Niger CLC 375-1591) . The Shanghai Empire was the largest and last of the three major West African empires. The capital was Gao on the Niger River. Shanghai expanded in all directions from Gao. It eventually extended from the Atlantic Ocean to what is now Northwest Nigeria and western Niger. The Empire became rich from the trade routes it controlled and slaves were one of the important commodities. Gao today is a small Niger River trading center, but in its time was one of the most important trading centers in Africa.From 1450-1550, the Shanghai kingdom grew very powerful and prosperous. It had well organized system of government, a developed currency and it imported fabrics from Europe. In most African societies, there was very little difference between the free peasants and the feudal peasants. The loyal peasants of the Shanghai Muslim Empire were used primarily in agriculture; for example they paid tribute to their masters in crop and service but they were slightly restricted in custom and convenience. In the Kane Born Empire, loyal peasants were three classes beneath the nobles.Slavery in African cultures was like indentured servitude, although in certain parts of sub-Sahara Africa, laves were used for human sacrifices in annual rituals, such as those rituals practiced by the people of Doomed. In many African communities, where land could not be owned, enslavement of individuals was used as a means to increase the influence a person had and expand connections, such as the Shanghai Empire. The Shanghai Empire was a pre-colonial West African trading state centered on the middle reaches of the Niger River in what is now central Mali.The empire extended west to the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, and east into present-day Nigeria and Burning Fast. Considered one of the greatest African empires, from the early fifteenth to the late sixteenth century, Shanghai was also one of the largest empires in West Africa, stretching all the way to present-day Cameroon. With several thousand cultures under its control, Shanghai was the largest empire in African history. The slave trade was also important for the economic development of West Africa . For a very long time, West African kingdoms had relied on slaves to carry out heavy work.In the Niger Valley many slave communities produced agricultural surpluses for the rulers and nobles of Shanghai The Shanghai kingdom under the rule of Asia Mohammed used slaves as soldiers. Slaves were trusted not to overthrow their rulers. Slaves Were also given important positions as royal advisers. Shanghai rulers believed that slaves could be trusted to provide unbiased advice unlike other citizens who held a personal stake in the outcome of decisions . Another group of slaves was known as palace slaves or the Arab. The Arab slaves served mainly as craftsperson, potters, woodworkers, and musician.Slaves also worked on village farms to help produce enough food to supply the growing population in towns. The empire of Shanghai controlled a vast region of the western savanna until its defeat by Moroccan invasion in 1591 . The west of Africa, the kingdom of Ghana was a vast Empire that spread across an area the size of Western Europe. Between the ninth and thirteenth centuries, it traded in gold, salt and copper. It was like a medieval European empire, with a collection of powerful local rulers, controlled by one king or emperor. Ghana was highly advanced and prosperous. It is said that the Ghanaian ruler had an army of 200,000 men.Ghana was known to have supplied gold, kola nuts and ivory. All the West African states along the Atlantic coast were linked by a southern trade route covering modern Senegal to modern Nigeria. Ghana because of its wealth in gold, exchanged gold for slaves. The treatment of slaves in Ghana was regulated by customary rules. In the event of a slaves master being cruel towards the slave, a slave in Ghana had the options to wait for the opportunity to runaway. Second, the slave could seek protection by throwing themselves on the mercy of a god at the traditional grove or on an ancestral spirit.Third, the slave could swear an oath on another person to adopt them, in which case that person paid compensation to the owner. From the thirteenth to the fifteenth century, the kingdom Of Mali spread across much f West and North-East Africa. At its largest, the kingdom had an organized trading system, with gold dust and agricultural produce being exported north. Mali reached its height in the 14th century. Cowries shells were used as a form of currency and gold, salt and copper were traded. Timeout became the most important city on the trans-Sahara caravan routes. Unlike most of the trading cities, Timeout became known in Europe for its great wealth, even entering the English vernacular. Important but smaller and less known trading centers developed in southern West Africa at the transitional zone between the tropical forest and the savanna. The expansive Mali Empire seized control of important trade routes to the west and east. The rulers of Mali also honored Islam and provided accommodations for Muslim merchants; and encouraged but did not force their subjects to convert. Under the reign of Sundials grand nephew Mans MUSM, trade increased respectively.Mans MUSM made a pilgrimage to Mecca in a gigantic caravan comprised of slaves, soldiers, gold, and many attendants . He presented lavish gifts to those who accommodated him on the way. While staying in Cairo for three months, he distributed so much gold that its value declined by s much as 25 per cent in local markets . His trip to Mecca caused him to take his Islamic belief much more seriously than before, and he built a number Of Mosques for Muslim merchants When Europeans came to West Africa they broadened and expanded the African slave trade to a brand new world thanks to the Trans Atlantic Slave trade.European traders established new trade routes in Africa, this brought power and wealth to the coast and new nations and states emerged. As the Trans Atlantic trade became more and more lucrative, the new kingdoms on the western coast of Africa that emerged traded gold, Moor, and slaves for firearms. With weapons and wealth, the rulers of the Guiana coast expanded their lands in an effort to gain acquire more slaves. In West African, the Trans-Atlantic slave trade increased due to the European powers beginning to ship slaves to Americas to work on plantations.Afr icans rulers, traders and military aristocracy protected their interest in the slave trade. They discouraged Europeans from leaving the coastal areas to explore the interior of the continent. European trading companies realized the benefit of dealing with African suppliers. The companies could not have gathered the necessary resources it would have oaken to directly capture the tens of millions of people shipped out of Africa. It was safer to give Africans guns to fight the many wars that yielded captives for the trade. The slave trading network stretched deep into the Africans interior.Trade was not accepted with completely open arms in this region however, The Kingdom of Benign initially restricted European slave trade and in other parts of the region At the same time, trans-Sahara trade began to lose its relevance, sending powerful empires on the interior of Africa, such as the Kingdom of Mali, into decline As the kingdoms of Africans interior diverted read toward the coast in an effort to enlarge their power and dominion. Europeans also established colonies on African coasts, further shifting the balance of power . Europeans goods drove Africans to greed, because Africans were extremely far behind in science and technology compared to the Europeans. Europeans were fueled by the agenda to make money from capitalism because they wanted maximum profit which lead to more demands of slaves. Trade with the wealthier Europeans became of prime interest to the Africans. Which lead to the slave trade moving from trans- Sahara trade routes to the much shorter south. The Africans only had to ring the captives to the coastal trading posts.The existence of slavery in Africa and the preexisting trade in people allowed Europeans to mobile the commerce in slaves relatively quickly by tapping existing routes and supplies. In this trade the Europeans were aided by the rulers of certain African states who were anxious to acquire more slaves for them and to supply slaves to the Europeans in exchange for aid and goods. The importation of slaves into the United States was outlawed in 1807 . In the same year, Britain used its naval power and its diplomatic muscle to outlaw trade in slaves by its citizens and o begin a campaign to stop the international trade in slaves.These attempts were not successful until the 1 sass because of the continued demand for plantation labor in the New World. In conclusion the effects of the slave trade on West African societies are best seen in the great West African Empires of Ghana, Mali and Shanghai. These empires were developed in West Africa during the slave trade era. The economies of these West African Empires were dependent on slave trading. Neighboring states competed with one another for trade, leading to wars, which in turn led to the capture of more slaves. Slave raiding in West, Africa became more common.The Atlantic slave trade overshadowed the Sub- Sahara slave trade in terms of number of export, impact on African practices of slavery, and lasting effect on Africa in general. These great kingdoms of the West African society before Europeans arrived were highly sophisticated trade routes and well established means of free labor where the slaves were treated with dignity and respect not tortured, raped, beaten and striped of all human rights. Europeans corrupted slavery to the point where slaves were viewed as animals that were not entitled to anything but hard labor.

Blowback essays

Blowback essays Chalmers Johnson presents a provocative analysis of the consequences of American political and military policy abroad in his progressive book, Blowback. The term blowback was first invented by the CIA to describe the effect that Americas operations in foreign countries could potentially result in retaliation. The book was published in 2000, eighteen months prior to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but clearly outlined the likelihood of such an event occurring. The first two chapters in the book alone serve up a strong cautionary case warning us about the negative impact US foreign policy has overseas. The following quote sums up the main premise of the book, Although most Americans may be largely ignorant of what was, and still is, being done in their names, all are likely to pay a steep price-individually and collectively-for their nation's continued efforts to dominate the global scene. Johnson p.33 Johnson argues that America has become an empire that has placed its military presence all over the globe, and uses American dollars to shape the economic climate in many foreign countries. He goes a bit far though in his prediction that our countrys political overreach ultimately spells disaster for the empire. He draws the simple conclusion that since America is an empire, and all empires fall, so America will fall. The fact that we have military bases abroad does not equate America to the Roman Empire. However, some of the events that occur as a byproduct of our presence overseas have long lasting tragic consequences, and the appalling manner that our government responds to US inflicted atrocities bring shame and dishonor upon all of us. An accident caused by a Marine Corps pilot that resulted in the deaths of 20 Italians when a ski-lift cable was cut seems to be gross negligence in light of the facts that the altitude and speed parameters were both violated. Yet the ...

History of Kitchen Appliance Inventions

History of Kitchen Appliance Inventions By definition, the kitchen is a room used for food preparation that is typically equipped with a stove, a sink for cleaning food and dish-washing, and cabinets and refrigerators for storing food and equipment. Kitchens have been around for centuries, however, it was not until post-civil war period that the majority of kitchen appliances were invented. The reason was that most people no longer had servants and housewives working alone in the kitchen needed culinary help. The advent of ​electricity greatly advanced the technology of labor-saving kitchen appliances. History of Large Kitchen Appliances Dishwasher:  In 1850, Joel Houghton patented a wooden machine with a hand-turned wheel that splashed water on dishes, it was hardly a workable machine, but it was the first patent.Garbage Disposer:  Architect, inventor John W. Hammes built his wife the worlds first kitchen garbage disposer in 1927. After 10  years of design improvement, Hammes went into business selling his appliance to the public. His company was called the In-Sink-Erator Manufacturing Company.Ovens or Stoves:  The first historical record of a stove refers to a device built in 1490 in Alsace, France.Microwave Ovens: The microwave oven was invented by Percy L. Spencer.Refrigerator: Before mechanical refrigeration systems were introduced, people cooled their food with ice and snow, either found locally or brought down from the mountains. History of Small Kitchen Appliances Apple Parer: On February 14, 1803, the apple parer was patented by Moses Coates.Blender:  In 1922, Stephen Poplawski invented the blender.Cheese-Slicer:  The cheese-slicer is a Norwegian invention.Corkscrews:  Corkscrew inventors were inspired by a tool called the bulletscrew or gun worm, a device that extracted stuck bullets from rifles.Cuisinart  Food Processor:  Carl Sontheimer invented the Cuisinart food processor.Green Garbage Bags:  The familiar green plastic garbage bag (made from polyethylene) was invented by Harry Wasylyk in 1950.Electric Kettle:  Arthur Leslie Large invented the electric kettle in 1922. General Electric introduced the electric kettle with an automatic cut-out in 1930.Weber Kettle Grill:  George Stephen invented the original Weber Kettle Grill in 1951.Mason Jar:  John Mason patented the screw neck bottle or the Mason Jar on November 30, 1858.Electric Mixers:  The first patent that can claim to be for an electric mixer was issued on Novemb er 17, 1885, to Rufus M. Eastman. Lillian Moller Gilbreth (1878-1972), the mother of 12 children, also patented an electric food mixer (at a later date). Mixmaster:  Ivar Jepson invented Sunbeam Mixmaster, which he patented in 1928, and first mass-marketed in 1930.Paper Towels:  The Scott Paper Company was founded in Philadelphia by Irvin and Clarence Scott in 1879. Brothers Seymour and Irvin Scott ran a paper commission business for twelve years, but the poor economy in the 1870s forced them out of business. Irvin and his younger brother, Clarence, then decided to form their own company out of the remains of the first. Irvin reportedly borrowed $2,000 from his father-in-law and added it to the $300 the two brothers had to form the capital of Scott Paper Company. In 1907, Scott Paper introduced the Sani-Towels paper towel, the first paper towels. They were invented for use in Philadelphia classrooms to help prevent the spread of the common cold from child to child.Peelers:  The nineteenth-century created numerous kitchen use inventions: toasters, potato mashers, apple/potato peelers, food choppers, and sausage stuffers were all invented. Over 185 patents for coffee grinders and over 500 patents for apple/potato peelers were patented in the 1800s. Early peelers were made of iron and the patent number and other information were included in the casting. Peelers ranged from the familiar and simple round swiveling rod with a knife blade that peeled skin, to contraptions full of gears and wheels that could peel, core, slice, and section. There were separate peelers designed for different fruits and vegetables; there were even peelers that removed the kernels from ears of corn. Pressure Cooker:  In 1679, French physicist Denis Papin invented the pressure cooker, called Papins Digester, this airtight cooker produced hot steam that cooked food more quickly while preserving nutrients.Saran Wrap:  Saran polyvinylidene chloride or Saran resins and films (called PVDC) have been wrapping products for more than 50 years.Soap and Detergents: The history of soaps and detergents as we know them today date back to the 1800s.Squeegee:  The single-blade window cleaning squeegee was invented by Ettore Sceccone in 1936.Toaster: Toasting bread began as a method of prolonging the life of bread. It was a common activity in Roman times, tostum is the Latin word for scorching or burning.Tupperware: Tupperware, plastic containers with airtight lids, was invented by Earl Silas Tupper.Waffle Iron: The waffle iron was patented on August 24, 1869, invented by Cornelius Swarthout of Troy, New York. The patent described the invention as a device to bake waffles.

Leadership and Communication Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Leadership and Communication - Term Paper Example Each leader possesses a unique leadership style and/or philosophy and communicates in a particular way depending on numerous factors such as their individual personalities, their levels of experience, education, or training, which greatly determines how followers react to leadership (Hersey, Blanchard, & Johnson,2013). Three major leadership styles that have persisted over the years include the Authoritarian, Democratic as well as Laissez-Fair; the autocratic leader establishes clear guidelines specifying tasks and procedures for accomplishing the given tasks thereby providing guidance for his or her followers. Nonetheless, the autocratic leaders make their independent decisions without involving their followers and are viewed as controlling, bossy and dictatorial thus may undermine the motivation of the workforce in accomplishing their specific tasks. Unlike the autocratic style, the democratic style of leadership entails a consideration of group input in the decision-making process ; precisely, democratic leaders value the need to engage followers in decision-making by listening to their suggestions. Consequently, the democratic leader makes his/her followers feel more engaged, valued and respected, which eventually makes them even more creative and motivated to contribute to the success of the organization; nonetheless, this style may also undermine performance due to disagreements and long consultation sessions. Unlike the other two leadership styles, the Laissez-Fair is suitable for work environments that have responsible group members that can work productively on their own without any form of supervision.

Complexity of managing an organization Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Complexity of managing an organization - Essay Example The cost of production should be kept at most fifty percent of the total cost for the vision of the organization to be achieved. On innovation and learning perspective, the Chief Information Officer should be responsible for making sure that the organization upgrades and the value constantly increasing. He or She should look for ways of action to take to ensure this goal is attained. Focusing on financial aspect, the Chief Information Officer should position make sure the organization in positioned well in the shareholder’s perpective.He or she should prioritize accurate and timely funding for the business (Pearlson & Saunders, 27).Question two.A diagnostic assistant is an example where artificial intelligence is applied. The aid the human beings identify problems and give suggestions on the restoration or treatment to solve the problems. A Turing test for this is an electrician’s assistant that proses what may be wrong in the premise, such as a default fuse, destroyed switch light or a burnt out light given some signs of electrical complications. Medical diagnostician   is another example of artificial intelligence   that discovers impending diseases, useful tests and suitable treatments based on knowledge of a specific medical domain a patients symptoms and history. This assistant should be capable of explaining its reasoning to the individual carrying out the tests and repairs and who is eventually responsible for their actions.Bullwhip effect is a perceived occurrence in forecast-driven delivery channel.

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe

Prevention Postoperative Vision Loss Study Health And Social Care Essay

Postoperative ocular loss ( POVL ) after non-ocular surgery is a rare, but lay waste toing complication that has been associated legion types of surgeries and patient hazard factors. Stoelting and Miller ( 2007 ) estimate the incidence of POVL from 1 in 60,965 to 1 in 125,234 for patients undergoing noncardiac, nonocular surgeries, from 0.06 % to 0.113 % in cardiac surgery patients with cardiorespiratory beltway and 0.09 % of prone spinal column surgeries. The demand to understand the causes of POVL and the preventive steps that can be taken to decrease the likeliness of vision loss happening are deductions for anaesthesia suppliers and patients likewise. Consequences of POVL non merely affect the enfeebling impact on the patient ‘s quality of life, but besides the legion medical and legal branchings for the anaesthesia suppliers. Although POVL is considered a comparatively uncommon complication, the demand to understand the frequence of POVL and related hazards and causes are of import issues. In 1999, the American Society of Anesthesiologists ‘ ( ASA ) Committee on Professional Liability established the ASA Postoperative Visual Loss Registry to better understand the job ( Stoelting & A ; Miller ) . Reports of loss of vision have occurred after assorted non-ocular related surgical processs. Some illustrations of these are cardiorespiratory beltway, spinal surgery, hip arthroplasty, abdominal processs, craniotomies and processs of the caput and cervix ( Morgan, Mikhail & A ; Murray, 2006 ) . The three recognized causes of postoperative ocular loss are ischaemic ocular neuropathy ( ION ) either anterior ( AION ) or posterior ( PION ) , cardinal retinal arteria occlusion ( CRAO ) , cardinal retinal vena occlusion ( CRVO ) and cortical sightlessness. Ischemic ocular neuropathy is the most often cited cause of postoperative ocular loss following general anaesthesia with cardinal retinal arteria occlusion from direct retinal force per unit area as a lesser cause. ( Stoelting & A ; Miller, 2007 ) . Factors that have been identified as possible perioperative factors for ION include drawn-out hypotension, extended continuance of surgery, prone placement, inordinate blood loss, unneeded crystalloid usage, anaemia, and increased intraocular force per unit area from prone placement. Patient related hazard factors associated with ION include diabetes mellitus, high blood pressure, morbid fleshiness, coronary artery disease, and smoke. ( Stoelting & A ; Miller, 2007 ) . Literature Review Several retrospective surveies have examined the natural history of POVL after nonocular surgery in an effort to place patients at hazard for POVL and cut down surgical hazard factors. The first, from 1996, Roth, Thisted, Erickson, Black, and Schreider reviewed oculus hurts in 60,985 patients undergoing anaesthesia between 1988 and 1992. The overall incidence of oculus hurt in this survey was 0.56 % . Duration of anaesthesia was found to be an independent hazard factor for oculus hurt. The hazard was further increased with general anaesthesia and endotracheal cannulation and in patients undergoing surgery of the caput or cervix. The bulk of the patients with oculus hurts had corneal scratchs or pinkeye. Merely one patient was found to hold POVL as a consequence of ION. This patient underwent lumbar spinal merger and the writers noted that calculated hypotension and hemodilution were used. In 1997, Stevens, Glazer, Kelley, Lietman and Bradford focused on ophthalmic complications specifically after spinal surgery. Of 3450 spinal column surgeries that the writers reviewed, seven ( 0.2 % ) instances of ocular loss were identified. Four ( 57 % ) of the seven patients suffered ION of which three had PION. Two of the seven patients had occipital infarcts, both of which were embolic. The 7th patient had a CRVO without associated periorbital hydrops or force per unit area mortification. The surgical times ranged from 3-8 hours in these patients. The estimated blood loss ranged from minimum to 8.5 litres. A 3rd survey, besides conducted in 1997, by Myers, Hamilton, Bogoosia, Smith and Wagner, collected patients by beging studies from the Scoliosis Research Study of POVL after spinal surgery every bit good as 10 good documented instances from the spinal literature. They found that longer surgical times and important blood loss were positively correlated with POVL. However, the haematocrit and blood force per unit area degrees were no different than in age matched controls without POVL. Twenty-three of the 37 ( 62.2 % ) patients had ION, 9 ( 24.3 % ) had CRAO, 3 ( 8.1 % ) had occipital infarcts and the staying three did non hold clear diagnosings. The writers concluded that reduced blood force per unit area is by and large good tolerated by patients, but that consideration should be given to set uping a minimal systolic blood force per unit area for each patient. In add-on, the writers recommended presenting long processs and protecting oculus place. More late the American Society of Anesthesiologists POVL register analyzed 93 instances of POVL happening after spinal surgery. The instances were collected via voluntary entry from1999 through June 2005. Eighty three ( 89.2 % ) of the patients had ION and the staying 10 ( 10.8 % ) patients had CRAO. All of the patients were placed prone. Surgical clip exceeded 6 hours in 94 % of the instances. In 34 % of instances the average arterial force per unit area or systolic blood force per unit area ( SBP ) was reduced to 40 % or more below baseline. The average haematocrit was 26 % with 82 % of patients losing one or more litres of blood. All of the patients with CRAO used head restraints alternatively of Mayfield pins and were somewhat younger than the ION patients ( 46 vs. 50 old ages ) . In add-on, 66 % of the ION patients had bilateral ocular loss and none of the CRAO patients did. Ipsilateral periocular injury was more often seen in the CRAO patients ( 70 % vs. 1 % ) than in ION patie nts. They once more identified the hazard of prone placement, blood loss and long surgical times. However, they were unable to definitively delegate a function to hypotension in POVL ( Lee, Roth, Posner, Cheney & A ; Caplan, 2006 ) . Another survey examined the published instance studies of ION after spinal surgery in the prone place. The writers found that PION was more often reported than AION ( n = 17 vs. n = 5 ) .3 In the bulk of the instances, some degree of hypotension and anaemia was reported. However, the writers note that the degree of blood force per unit area and anaemia sustained by these patients would be considered acceptable in most anesthesia patterns. Furthermore, the writers observed that average surgical clip was over 7.5 hours. Strategies the writers suggested to avoid postoperative ION included careful usage of deliberate hypotension tailored to the patient ‘s hazard degree and theatrical production of long, complex processs ( Ho, Newman, Song, Ksiazek & A ; Roth, 2005 ) . Case Study A 62 twelvemonth old male was scheduled for a three degree lumbosacral laminectomy and diskectomy ( L2 through L4 ) . He had a history of high blood pressure, fleshiness, stomachic reflux disease, myocardial infarction 5 old ages antecedently with two stents placed in the LAD, and a 50-pack-year smoke history. The patient had a surgical history of bilateral carpal tunnel release and ventral hernia fix with mesh. No old anaesthetic complications were noted. Current medicines included omeprazole, and Lopressor. He had no known drug allergic reactions. The patient ‘s physical scrutiny revealed an afebrile patient, pulse 67, respirations 16, blood force per unit area 162/92, SpO2 of 95 % on room air. The patient ‘s general visual aspect was a reasonably corpulent adult male in no evident hurt. Airway appraisal revealed a category 2 Malampatti, natural teething and normal cervix scope of gesture. Laboratory findings were hemoglobin 14.4 and hematocrit 40 % . All other haematol ogy, curdling profiles were normal. EKG was normal sinus beat and Chest X ray was normal. The patient underwent a criterions initiation and cannulation. He was turned prone, appendages were good padded and airing and critical marks were satisfactory. The process lasted for 3 hours and during a period of moderate blood loss, the patient had a period of hypotension enduring for about seven proceedingss. His blood force per unit area averaged 95/55 for about 30 proceedingss and for five proceedingss blood force per unit area averaged 80/45. Fluid resuscitation totaled 3 litres of crystalloid. Estimated blood loss was 550ml with a postoperative haematocrit of 29 % . On waking up, the patient did non exhibit any marks of orbital hydrops or POVL. The patient stated that vision was present in both eyes and his neurologic scrutiny was normal. Schemes for bar of POVL ION is the most common cause of POVL and may be designated as anterior ( AION ) or posterior ( PION ) depending on the location of the ocular nervus lesion. Ocular loss of AION is due to infarction at watershed zones within the ciliary arterias of the choroid bed of the ocular disc which flows into the choriocapillaris. The choriocapillaris is an end-arterial circulation with small transverse circulation and may be prone to ischemia. The posterior ocular nervus is served by subdivisions of the ocular arteria and the cardinal retinal arteria ; blood flow to the posterior ocular nervus is significantly less than the anterior ocular nervus ( Lee, et Al, 2006 ) . Many interventions have been attempted to change by reversal POVL, including anticoagulation, antiplatelet therapy, retrobulbar steroid injections, norepinepherine extracts ( to better perfusion force per unit area ) , diphenylhydantoin, osmotic water pills, blood replacing, carbonaceous anhydrase inhibitors, steroids and ocular nervus decompression. The most common forecast of POVL is small return of ocular map ( Lee, et al 2006 ) . ION should be suspected if a patient complains of painless ocular loss during the first postoperative hebdomad and may be noticed foremost on rousing from slumber, when intraocular force per unit area is highest. Pressing opthamologic audience should be sought to analyze the patient comprehensively, set up the diagnosing, and urge farther rating and therapy. Even though forecast tends to be hapless, prompt intervention may be the lone opportunity at retrieving vision ( Ho, Newman, Song, Ksiazek, & A ; Roth, 2005 ) . Obvious turning away of force per unit area on the oculus is a primary scheme to avoid ION. However, POVL has been noted in patients besides in the supine place. Current anaesthesia supplier instruction refering turning away of compaction of a patient ‘s eyes has made it a rare intraoperative event. Possibly nore good is keeping acceptable blood force per unit area and haematocrit, particularly in patients with multiple hazard factors. More than one-half of the patients entered in the ASA POVL database were positioned prone and were noted as holding important facial puffiness. When associated with systemic hypotension, optic perfusion force per unit area is diminished. Decreased haematocrit in the presence of other hazard factors seems to patients at hazard for ocular loss. Induced hypotension and hemodilution during prone spinal column instances should be avoided when patients have risk factors for POVL ( Lee, et Al, 2006 ) .